WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised from June its US sugar production and import estimates for 2023-24, resulting in sharply higher ending stocks. Larger beginning stocks and projected higher beet sugar production in 2024-25 more than offset lower imports from Mexico as the USDA balanced for a 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio for next year.    

For the current marketing year, the USDA estimated beet sugar production at 5,179,000 tons, up 133,781 tons, or 2.7%, from June, and inched cane sugar production up 5,791 tons (in Florida), to 4,041,000 tons, for total production at 9,220,000 tons, up 1.5% from June but still 30,000 tons below the 2022-23 level.

“With the end of beet slicing in all regions except California, USDA has adopted beet processor estimates of production from slice at 4.882 million short tons, raw value,” the USDA said. “With a small reduction in beet sugar from desugared molasses, beet (sugar) production for the fiscal year is estimated at 5.179 million tons.”

Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,619,000 tons, up 165,259 tons, or 4.8%, from June based on higher imports from Mexico and record-large high-duty imports. Imports of sugar from Mexico were estimated at 504,000 tons, up 38,506 tons, or 8%, from June. Total high-duty imports were estimated at a record 1,028,899 tons, up about 127,000 tons, or 14%, from June and up 574,000 tons, or 126%, from 2022-23, including 700,000 tons of raw sugar imports, 270,000 tons of refined sugar, and 58,899 tons from molasses. 

Total supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,682,000 tons, up 304,831 tons, or 2.1%, from June and nearly even with 14,685,000 tons in 2022-23. 

Exports for the current year were estimated at 241,000 tons, up 42,913 tons, or 22%, from June and up 159,000 tons, or nearly 200%, from 82,000 tons the prior year, based on “the strong pace of exports to Mexico,” the USDA said.

There were no changes from June to estimated deliveries for food at 12,350,000 tons.

Ending stocks on Sept. 30, 2024, were forecast at 1,986,000 tons, up 262,000 tons, or 15%, from June, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 15.6%, up from 13.6% in June, and the highest since 16.1% in 2018 if realized.

For 2024-25, the USDA balanced for a 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio by lowering imports from Mexico to offset higher beginning stocks, higher beet sugar production, higher tariff-rate quota imports and higher high-tier imports. 

The USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,325,000 tons, up 124,816 tons from June, including beet sugar at 5,236,000 tons, up 124,816 tons, and cane sugar at 4,089,000 tons, unchanged. If realized, total sugar production in 2024-25 would be record high, and both beet and cane sugar production would be the second highest on record after 5,279,000 tons for beet sugar in 2017-18 and 4,141,000 tons for cane sugar in 2020-21 (cane sugar production also was 4,089,000 tons in 2000-01). The forecast increase in beet sugar production for 2024-25 was based on higher harvested area from June, higher national average yield and higher sugar production of desugared molasses due to expanded capacity, the USDA said.

Total imports in 2024-25 were projected at 2,939,000 tons, down 137,000 tons from June. TRQ imports were forecast at 1,647,000 tons, up 231,485 tons as expected after the USDA announced the refined and specialty sugar TRQ. High-duty imports were forecast at 301,899 tons, up 38,753 tons from June but down 71% from 2023-24. Imports from Mexico were adjusted down to 790,000 tons from 1,197,000 tons in June as the USDA balanced for a 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio.

Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was projected at 14,250,000 tons, up 249,972 tons from June but down 432,000 tons, or 2.9%, from 2023-24.

There were no changes from June in any of the sugar use categories. Ending stocks for next year were projected at 1,695,000 tons, up 250,000 tons, or 17%, from June, but down 291,000 tons, or 15%, from 2023-24.

The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production at 4,708,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 10,000 tons from June as the season came to an end. Imports were estimated at 747,000 tons, up 151,000 tons from June. Domestic use was estimated at 4,630,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from June, and exports were raised 33,000 tons to 432,000 tons. Ending stocks were forecast at 1,228,000 tons, up 96,000 tons, or 8%, from June.

For 2024-25, Mexico’s sugar production was projected at 5,094,000 tons, down 95,000 tons, or 1.8%, from June but up 386,000 tons, or 8%, from 2023-24. Imports were lowered to 25,000 tons from 343,000 tons in June. Domestic use was unchanged from June at 4,661,000 tons. Exports were projected at 708,000 tons, down 316,000 tons from June largely reflected the lower US export limit. Ending stocks in 2024-25 were unchanged at 978,000 tons.