In celebrations large and small, cake remains nostalgically intertwined with feel-good memories.

As a focal point of many special social occasions, cake plays well among all generations. Globally, millennials and Gen Z continue to drive the market with demand for post-meal cakes and desserts when dining out and at weekend parties. The global cake market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3% from 2024-2030, according to Grand View Research, San Francisco.

When it comes to creating an instore cake program, personalization is more than a trend, it’s essential, according to John Gardner, vice president, trade and customer development, DecoPac, Anaka, Minn. Personalization can create a cake that’s an emotion-centric expression – via a handwritten note, memes, cartoons, icons, personal reflections and quotes. This is why a photo-image cake remains a top-selling custom order.

“Personalization has taken on new meaning beyond simply choosing format, flavor, color and messaging,” Gardner said. “The celebration is an emotional experience, and the cake is the focal point to express that emotion.”

This appeal goes hand in hand with greater creativity in flavors, colors and co-branding across the category, according to Rich Products, Buffalo, N.Y. The company is also seeing branded flavors drive impulse purchases with Funfetti cakes and icings becoming a 2024 success story.

Rich’s Towering Cakes feature up to six layers in flavors such as Italian Crème, Carrot, Coconut Crème and Lemon Blueberry and offer instore bakeries a convenient and cost-effective way to sell by-the-slice while showcasing over-the-top indulgence.

“Since demand has softened due to inflation, cake suppliers and bakeries are working harder to grab consumer attention with regional, global and seasonal flavor varieties either as whole cakes, mini cakes, or cake slices that serve as a safe adventure and as an affordable, special treat,” said Bill Heiler, senior manager, customer marketing, Rich Products.

Taste evolutions

While trends evolve over time, there is one constant – taste is king. Over 80% of consumers say taste is the most important factor when choosing a dessert, according to Datassential.

Amanda Berry, product marketing specialist, Cargill, sees ethnic flavors and formats growing with options such as ube, tahini and matcha finding their way into the bakery aisle. In terms of global flavors, Hispanic dessert cups and Tres Leches-style cakes are extremely popular. Datassential finds 47% of US consumers are interested in global desserts. 84.51° Stratum shopper loyalty shows that only one-third of households purchasing portion-sized Hispanic-style desserts are Hispanic.

Consumers also haven’t lost an appetite for the classics. Nostalgia and newstalgia, the combination of nostalgic flavors with an updated twist, are still playing strong in the form of chocolate, vanilla, caramel, strawberry, peppermint, candy-related toppers and butterscotch.

“With nostalgia resonating among Boomers to Gen Z, there is an unprecedented 40-year time frame to put a spin on traditional favorites,” said Cathy Wisloski, manager insights and customer experience, Dawn Foods, Jackson, Mich.

Beyond nostalgia, cake flavors also take inspiration from seasonal and regional flavors. Lighter fruit flavors like lemon and strawberry appeal to consumers in the spring and summer. Nielsen found strawberry shortcake to be a growth driver between April and June 2024. Progressing into the fall, warmer spices and flavors such as apple, pumpkin and caramel are popular. Regional cake favorites featuring olive oil are trending in the West; cherry in the Midwest; Hummingbird (coconut and banana) in the South; and tiramisu and cake with crème Anglaise in the Northeast.

LTOs and seasonal flavors, especially when offered outside of the typical season, can be a good way to make connections and capitalize on important family traditions. Flavors such as sticky toffee, graham, peanut brittle, key lime, baklava, oatmeal chocolate chip and caramel apple highlight flavor opportunities for connection.

Research from Cargill found 63% of consumers are motivated to make purchases when they see an item in a new flavor. An IDDBA FlavorConnect webinar, How to Choose Flavors that Cue Fuel and Fun in Sweet Snacks, from FlavorSum, Kalamazoo, Mich., highlighted flavor trends of “Help me make memories” and “Delight me.”

Three top cake trends

• Textures for indulgence — mousse, tiramisu, meringue, Tres Leches, lava cake and filled cupcakes
• Sustainable — use of local and organic ingredients, reusable cake stands and composting cake scraps
• Interactive — secret message cakes, burn-away cakes and pull-me-up cakes that reveal a surprise

Connecting with consumers

Rich Products emphasizes two important consumer segments for cake: the Engaged Explorers and the Special Treat Seekers. Engaged Explorers tend to be curious and adventurous and more likely to buy a cake on impulse if something new and interesting catches their eye. Special Treat Seekers prioritize sweet and craveable offerings. Treat Seekers are most likely to purchase familiar, nostalgic flavors and brands. Both segments are loyal shoppers with an expectation of the delivery of great, quality flavors and textures and visual appeal, Heiler said.

The company teams with its retail partners and cake decorators to demonstrate how to riff on viral sensations and expand on them. It also offers proprietary bakery shopper segmentation, developed in partnership with Circana, Chicago, to understand specific shopper needs, motivators and occasions. It is also teaming with Circana’s National Eating Trends to dive into the Who, What, Where, When and Why of celebrations.

Cargill also invests in proprietary consumer research to help customers understand what consumers want and to identify emerging trends. Dawn partners with its customers to grow their business and inspire bakery success as consumer needs evolve. Its website provides more than 1,000 inspirational recipe ideas, such as the experiential Pinata cake filled with candy. DecoPac offers the Celebration IQ platform, a technology solution that provides an online ordering option for bakeries.

Nimble approach

A multitude of touchpoints coupled with the ubiquitousness of social media means there’s a never-ending stream of cake concepts. Unique ideas can originate from instore bakery decorators, home bakers and independent bakers alike. The lifecycle of a trend often begins in fine dining, ethnic markets and even mixology. Artisanal bakeries also play a critical role in trend development and can be a bridge between a trend in the inception stage and one that could become widely available. “For most instore bakeries, it’s tough to transfer a direct cake idea seen on social media by an influencer, but by working with a cake decorator, there’s a greater chance of achieving a reasonable version of what’s being seen on social media,” Gardner said.

While inspiration abounds on Instagram, Pinterest and Tik Tok, trends with staying power typically follow a path of progression from specialty grocer and artisanal bakeries before continuing on to mainstream grocery, fast casual and QSRs. These trends can take years to progress to a level of maturity but platforms such as Instagram and TikTok now shorten the time it takes to move to a national or global audience, according to Wisloski. This speed also offers instore bakeries an opportunity to participate in these trend cycles to engage shoppers.

Wisloski considers the customer journey in two phases: trial and repeat. The first purchase may be driven by vibrant or innovative flavors, social media recommendations or an impulse purchase. These are purchases that can create visibility, press and excitement for a bakery.

“After a first trial, it’s important that repeat purchases generate ongoing revenue for a bakery,” she continued. “These are the cakes that consumers want to eat, can afford and will regularly put into their basket. While an Instagrammable cake plays an important role in establishing a bakery’s brand, it is critical to identify the cake flavors and formats that drive the most repeat business and feature a blend of the two.”

Right-sized celebrations

Thankfully, the craving for cake is easily satisfied and smaller cakes are meeting consumers’ needs in 2024 (Nielsen). The standard 8” size is migrating down to a smaller 6” cake. Smaller sizes offer a way to showcase innovative cake flavors such as matcha, olive oil, rose or hummingbird and/or to be a canvas for trending cake frostings and fillings such as mango, lemon and meringue. Possibilities also arise by stacking cakes to sculpt new and innovative designs.

“Minis play a lot of different roles,” Beery said. “They are convenient, portable and sharable, and they provide built-in portion control and another approach to permissible indulgence.”

Smaller sizes also encourage flavor exploration, satisfy personal cravings and are an option for smaller gatherings. Cupcakes provide a more traditional offering. The highly portable treat is perfect for grab-and-go that lends itself well to children’s parties, team celebrations and larger gatherings.

Expanded selections

Circana finds Americans snacking more than ever, and proprietary research from Dawn shows consumers like to snack on cake. Dawn is seeing retailers offering single servings of cake as slices, cake layers in a cup, cake pops and cake balls, merchandising them with grab-and-go items in the prepared foods section. Grab-and-go desserts are outpacing all other dessert categories with dollar sales up 7.5% and units up 5.1% for the latest 52 weeks (through July 13, 2024). This offers an opportunity to expand on cake’s already-strong contribution of nearly one-third of sweet bakery dollar sales (Nielsen).

Convenience also comes in the ability of consumers to purchase using their phone instead of using cash or credit and offering the convenience of online ordering and instore pickup.

“Retailers continue to dedicate talented decorators to these categories because if you win the cake, you will win the celebration and the other party-related purchases that come with it, such as soft drinks, bagged snacks, fresh produce, and specialty deli and meat products,” Heiler concluded.

Commissary insider

Anchor Packaging’s new cupcake containers are perfect for commissaries and other applications where product needs to be moved from one site to another without being damaged.

Thanks to an innovative design, the 12-count containers “keep cupcakes in place, even upside-down,” according to Anchor. “No more lost sales from ruined icing. Built-in shock absorption adds resilience for freezer to fresh durability.”

Anchor introduced the product to customers at IDDBA and other spring and summer shows this year.