New York-based consultancy Bain & Company forecasts that Santa’s sleigh may be slowing down this year. Compared to 2023 (4.2%) and 2022 (4.4%), projected total retail growth for the 2024 holiday season is 3%. The forecast is even lower than the 10-year average of 5.2% growth.
Fortunately for the supermarket industry, grocery retailers are projected to see growth anywhere between 1-5% during the holidays, while many other retail categories will see anywhere from negative high single digits (-5% or less) to roughly flat (-1%-1%). E-commerce is the only category projected to have growth in the high single digits (5% or more).
Bain reported that consumers across all income levels had a more negative financial outlook in August 2024 than in August 2023. Upper-income (more than $100,000) consumers’ intent to spend went from 124 in 2023 to 113 in 2024. Lower-income (less than $50,000) consumers’ intent to spend went down from 111 to 102, and middle-income ($50,000-$100,000) consumers’ intent to spend moved slightly from 110 to 109. Lower- and middle-income consumers’ overall outlooks went down by one point each, while upper-income consumers’ overall outlooks dropped from 105 to 99.
The reduction on holiday spending comes from the 4.2% unemployment rate in August 2024 (the second-highest since October 2021); a rise in credit card delinquencies and a lower savings rate contributing to consumers’ stress; and increased costs of basic needs like housing and healthcare taking away from potential gifting budgets.
For retailers, Bain offered the following five tips:
- Emphasize value, no matter your price point
- Entice consumers with intuitive search tools, personalized marketing, relevant gift lists and timely promotions
- Showcase exclusive products, collections, brands and partnerships
- Delight shoppers during a stressful season with upskilled holiday staff and more fulfillment options, including fast shipping and easy returns
- Make omnichannel easier — utilize excess store capacity to meet digital demand
This article is an excerpt from the October 2024 issue of Supermarket Perimeter. You can read the entire Seasonal Merchandising feature and more in the digital edition here.
